In sports betting, the spread is a key component that handicaps teams and impacts wagering outcomes. Spreads can be positive or negative depending on the teams involved. But what exactly does a negative spread mean for bettors? This article will break down the mechanics of negative spreads, when they are used, and strategies around betting on reverse spreads.
What is a Spread in Betting?
A spread in betting refers to a handicap applied to favourite teams to level the playing field versus underdogs. Favourites must win by over the spread amount, while underdogs can lose by less than the spread and still cover bets. For example, New England -7 means the Patriots must win by over 7 points against the spread. Spread bet wins and losses are determined after the spread factor is applied to the final score.
Spreads exist because bettors like wagering on both favourites and underdogs to create two-sided markets. If spreads did not exist, heavy favourite money would dominate bets. Spreads create an advantage margin that makes betting on underdogs worthwhile.
When Does a Negative Spread Occur?
Most betting spreads have positive values like +7.5 for underdogs and -7.5 for favourites. But occasionally spreads go negative, like -1.5 for a favourite. This happens when both teams are closely matched, with no clear underdog. The negative spread indicates which team is considered slightly better by oddsmakers at the time.
Negative spreads most often occur in evenly matched contests like NFL divisional rivalries or late season college basketball. With power rankings close, a narrow negative spread is applied to the team with a modest edge. Finals and championships can also elicit negative spreads when both sides are talented.
Strategies for Betting Negative Spreads
Betting against negative spreads requires nuanced approaches compared to positive spread wagers. Here are some strategies to consider:
- In a pick ’em type game with a -1 spread, focus on the moneyline odds instead. The tight spread offers little advantage, so take the better moneyline price on either side.
- Strongly consider teasing negative spreads up by 6-7 points. Moving a -2.5 spread teased up to +3.5 is more attractive if you like the underdog.
- Buy a half point on the spread if that shifts the line to positive. Moving from -1 to +0.5 costs vig but can provide a mental edge.
- If you like a favourite with a negative spread, consider betting them on the first half spread before they pull away. Laying -3 in the first half can offer better value.
- Utilise live betting if the game flows differently than expected. A negative spread can shift if the favourite struggles early or vice versa.
Negative spreads indicate tight contests where advantages are hard to predict. By applying these strategies, negative spread bets can prove profitable if used judiciously.
Key Takeaways
In review, negative spreads occur when oddsmakers expect a match to be tightly contested between two capable opponents. This causes the favourite’s spread to dip below zero into negative territory instead of applying a positive handicap. A -1.5 favourite must now win by more than 1.5 points, a trickier task than covering +1.5 as an underdog. When betting negative spreads, consider moneylines, teasers, buying half points, first half wagers, and live betting to gain an edge. While counterintuitive, negative spreads provide a unique betting experience on competitively priced matchups.
Negative Spreads in Action – Real World Examples
To illustrate negative spread betting, consider some historical examples. In the 2019 Cricket World Cup, India closed as -0.5 favourites against New Zealand before being upset in a thriller. Bettors laying the small negative spread with India endured a rough beat. The 2018 Women’s College Basketball National Championship saw Notre Dame close as -1 favourites against Mississippi State, just failing to cover in a 61-58 final score. And in the 2007 Super Bowl, the undefeated Patriots were -2.5 over the Giants. Bettors who teased New England down to +3.5 were ecstatic when New York pulled the upset. These real-life situations demonstrate how minimal negative spreads reflect ultra-close matchups between elite rivals, where bettors must strategise wisely around the quirks of reverse spreads to maximise returns.
All in all, in sports betting, negative spreads represent a handicapping quirk that defies conventional positive numbering. But these reverse spreads simply reflect projections of narrow advantages and closely fought contests. While dissecting negative spreads requires examining moneylines, teasers, partial points, first half bets, and live wagering, this also makes betting them intriguing in its own right. By understanding the motives behind negative numbers and strategising wisely, you can embrace betting on both sides of the spread continuum for a well-rounded experience. Just be sure to always gamble responsibly and avoid chasing losses when the unconventional negative numbers don’t pan out as hoped.
No Comments